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Ever since Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 45th President of the United States on Friday 20th January, there doesn’t seem to be a day that goes by without some sort of news blowing up. Whether most is simply media hype or Trump’s infamous coined term “fake news” is up for interpretation, but no one could deny that the sacking of FBI Direct James Comey was anything other than a bombshell.
— CNN (@CNN) May 9, 2017
Mr Comey has been a polarising figure in the US for both Republicans and Democrats, having been involved in investigations against both Trump, for his alleged Russian links, and presidential rival Hillary Clinton, for her controversial use of a private email server. However, despite his wide-ranging involvements, it still came as a surprise to many that President Trump dispensed with his services – and this has, yet again, seen punters racing to the bookies.
At the time of writing, Betfair’s political arm has it at 11/2 that The Donald will have left his duties as President of the US by the time we’re celebrating New Year’s Day 2018. While there have been plenty of bizarre and comment-worthy moments of his tenure so far, the firing of James Comey seems to have topped it all – and Betfair have acted upon this.
The UK bookmaker said they have taken more than 2,000 bets on Trump’s 2017 departure alone since the news broke, forcing them to do a few adjustments to reach the value of 11/2. The bookies infamously took a gigantic hit on Trump’s ascendancy to America’s top job, this coming just a few months after the huge upset of Brexit.
With regards to a Trump exit (could the term Trexit actually catch on!?) happening at a later stage, Betfair have priced a 2018 or 2019 departure date at 5/1. Please note: all odds are highly likely to fluctuate over time.
Finally for Betfair’s political betting markets, one gambler is so sure that Donald won’t last his first term (until 2020) that they’ve wagered a mind-blowing £100,000 on this outcome!
Although Paddy Power and Betfair have combined, the Irish bookie has decided to go for a different angle with US betting following Comey’s firing. Rather than focus on Trump, they’ve opened a betting market for his replacement, with Andrew McCabe leading at 9/4 when this piece was written.
Mike Rogers, Ken Wainstein and John Pistole are the nearest of the chasing pack at 3/1, 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, but McCabe is the clear favourite in Paddy Power’s eyes. Again, odds are subject to change.
Another interesting US political betting market that Paddy Power have opened is the Next Member of the Trump Administration to Resign or be Fired. If you thought James Comey was the first to go then you’re way behind schedule – as Michael Flynn, Sally Yates and Craig Deare have already been given the chop.
Steve Bannon, the current White House Chief Strategist and Breitbart News founder, leads the list at 13/8, with Sean Spicer and Kellyanne Conway the next in line, according to Paddy Power. Interestingly, they’ve priced Ivanka Trump at 66/1!
Although it’s been over a month since Paddy Power Betfair used Nigel Farage to spearhead their Head of Trump Betting job recruitment, it hasn’t proved fruitful just yet. They’re still on the lookout for someone to take control of their US president markets, so perhaps there are still plenty of opportunities to be had for the well-versed.
Oh, and just in case you were wondering – Paddy Power still have their €10 no deposit bonus available for new casino players!
Just in case you thought Paddy Power Betfair’s political betting was all about the US or UK, figures recently released have shown that Betfair took more than £22million for the 2017 French general election! Marine Le Penn was the rank outsider for much of the race, and this resulted in a lot of action. However, unlike recent political upsets, Emmanuel Macron raced to victory.
Betfair have confirmed that the £22million+ surpassed the amount wagered on the 2014 Scottish Referendum, although it has to be said that political betting has only recently exploded due to Brexit and the US election. Although France 2017 is the 3rd-most popular market ever, we’re expecting upcoming political events to knock it off the podium soon enough.